Free tool · Retirement

Will My Money Last? Retirement Monte Carlo

Run a thousand market scenarios against your nest egg and spending. See how often your money outlasts you — and where you land in the good, middle, and bad cases.

Your plan succeeds in

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Ending balance — bad / middle / good case

10th percentile

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50th percentile

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90th percentile

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Show my work

Iterations simulated—

Success rate (ending balance > $0)—

Worst-case ending (10th pct)—

Median ending (50th pct)—

Best-case ending (90th pct)—

Each scenario draws a random annual real return from a normal distribution (your mean and volatility) and withdraws spending using a half-year convention — half at the start of the year, half at the end — which approximates spreading withdrawals across the year. Returns are in real (after-inflation) dollars, so spending is held constant and inflation is not compounded on top. Success = the portfolio ends above $0. This browser version runs 1,000 iterations; the full ClearAxisCFO plan runs 10,000 against your real accounts, tax buckets, Social Security, RMDs, and real estate.

One slice of the picture

Run 10,000 iterations against your real accounts, taxes, and real estate.